Темная сторона практического моделирования ГДИС
http://www.petroleumengineers.ru/node/7212

Frackers Can Still Rule The World’s Oil Markets

When ‘Abd Allah al-Badri, Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), recently said the cartel’s decision to continue to pump oil in spite of collapsing prices is inflicting pain on US shale producers, he was right. One after another, US-based independent oil producers such as Carrizo Oil and Gas, Rosetta Resources, and Whiting Petroleum are reporting missed earnings estimates and plans to cut production.

But it’s way too early to count US-based shale producers out as major players in the oil markets in the future. Rather, what’s happening marks a historic shift in the companies acting as swing producers for the market by reacting swiftly to falling prices.

Shale producers have continuously improved their drilling and fracturing technology, increasing their efficiency and allowing them to break even at oil prices as low as $40/B, depending on the field. Shale producers are already competitive with many conventional fields. As a result, US oil output has been surprisingly strong in February and rapidly filling available storage tanks, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly oil report released on 13 March.

These producers will only become more economical. Over the last three years alone, many American shale producers have cut their unconventional oil drilling and completion costs by 15-25% on average, our research shows.

In fact, many North American shale producers are already working toward reducing their breakeven point by as much as half. A lower break-even point could put shale on par with oil fields of many national oil companies.

By contrast, the cost of oil drilling in the Middle East is starting to climb. To maintain or improve production from maturing fields, Middle Eastern national oil companies will need to adopt enhanced recovery methods using more expensive technologies. They will also have to consider tapping into new reservoirs and fields, many of which are lower quality. It will likely cost more to produce a barrel of oil from these sourer, heavier, and tighter supplies.

So in effect, as OPEC acts less like a traditional “swing producer,” North American shale producers are stepping into the role. Since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have acted as swing producers by increasing or reducing their oil output to help the global market adjust to shortages or surpluses in supply and volatile prices. North American shale producers are now responding to market supply and price changes.

Rather than folding due to the decline in oil prices, many unconventional producers are just shrinking a bit until prices rebound back to a more desirable level. By allowing their producing shale fields to deplete naturally and curtailing drilling of new development wells, they are slashing their production in response to oversupply and low prices. But once supply tightens and the price of oil recovers, North American shale producers can quickly ramp up production in a matter of months, not years, by deploying hundreds of rigs in factory-mode drilling. Within the next decade, more unconventional oil and gas producers will likely join these existing players’ ranks. Shortages in rapidly growing regions such as Asia and Africa are likely to be further exacerbated by a rising number of countries taking unilateral action to cope with local scarcities. And the US has shown one relatively inexpensive and fast way for countries to seek energy independence is by exploiting their own unconventional oil and gas resources.

Until now, the US has dominated the unconventional oil and gas market in large part because its players have better access to cheap capital, stronger mineral rights laws, availability of water for fracking and an entrepreneurial and market driven supply-chain eco-system. But it’s only a matter of time before countries such as China, Russia, and Argentina figure out how to improve their environments for unconventional oil and gas drilling – potentially resulting in more regionalized oil markets in the long term. The estimated 156 billion barrels of oil equivalent unconventional resources in the US are only a small fraction of the 1.6 trillion barrels of unconventional oil and gas that exist worldwide.

So what steps should governments, national oil companies, and oil majors take to stay ahead of these shifts? So far, most are tightening their belts to survive currently low oil prices by cutting less valuable capital expenditures, renegotiating supplier contracts, and reconsidering stock buybacks and dividend payouts, which have exceeded the oil majors’ cash flows in recent years. Some are also opportunistically revamping their portfolios of businesses, workforces, supply chains, and risk management practices.

While these are practical short-term steps, the answer to beating low oil prices is not to count on a cartel to once again guide market forces, but instead to respond better to supply and demand dynamics. To come out on top, governments and companies should take advantage of market distress, while they can by rebalancing their resources to better meet shifting domestic and overseas demand and supply dynamics before the economic cycle reverses.

Governments in the Middle East, especially, should focus on improving their ability to deploy capital in initiatives that will maximize their localization by creating more jobs, while expanding their range of substitutes for energy imports and potential exports. They should pick up the acreage, technology, talent, and capabilities they need to compete in an oil market made up of many more nimble shale producers. Frackers are showing that a new, more market-driven, invisible hand is not influencing oil prices, but rather, being driven by them.

*Bernhard Hartmann and Saji Sam are Dubai-based partners in the Energy Practice of Oliver Wyman, a global management consulting firm.

Jaime Kammerzell 

Remember The Talk About A Global Shale Revolution? Don't Hold Your Breath. Jeff Reed

http://oilpro.com/post/11504/remember-talk-global-shale-revolution-dont-hold-your-breath

Paralleling the collapse in the oil price has been the collapse in hopes that the a global shale revolution will occur anytime in the near or mid-term future. For the last five years or so, and after billions of investment, some of the leading global oil companies are beginning to scale back their efforts to replicate the NAM shale boom on a world scale.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that majors such as ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell have ceased nearly all efforts to get unconventional exploration underway in Europe, Russia and China. In addition to oil prices below what it costs to produce a barrel of shale oil, sanctions against Russia, a fracing ban in France, a fracing moratorium in Germany and an unfavorable regulatory regime and poor initial results in Poland, are among the principal reasons the paper cites for the dimming of global shale hopes.

In February, Chevron stalled its last European fracing operations when it exited Romania. In its 4Q14 earnings conference call, Shell said it is reducing global shale spending by 30% in areas including Ukraine, Turkey and Argentina. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil has exited Poland and Hungary, and its fracing operations in Germany have been put on hold.

Consequently, only China, Argentina and Canada are currently engaged in commercial shale production outside of the US. And, according to the EIA, NAM contains less than 10% of the world's estimated shale reserves. According to the agency, Europe (inclusive of Russia) and China alone hold nearly triple the reserves of the US.

Most Technology Works and Most Technology Fails. Chip Davis

An astute CEO of a Houston-based software company regularly reminds me that most software can do what it is designed to do. He makes this statement while acknowledging that a significant number of corporate software adoptions fail: he is pointing towards the human factor.

A piece of software is really an instrument by which a group of people can agree to do a certain thing a certain way. This group is generally led to agreement to try something "new" based on its recognition of an opportunity or problem. The opportunity or problem must be substantial enough to cause the group to agree....."something has got to change".

What causes technology to fail is generally a combination of two factors (a) the group contemplating change did not fully understand the level of preparation required to build a new way, and (b) the person selling them the software did not fully explain/disclose the level of preparation required to build a new way.

We humans tend to marginalize in advance the amount of effort required to deliver success. This reminds me of another interesting quote:

"No one remembers the amount of money that was saved on the project that failed." 

Enhancing plug-and-perf efficiency by enabling faster run-in and mill-out times and improved anchoring and sealing.

The Weatherford TruFrac® composite plug provides both single- and multiple-zone isolation during plug-and-perf completions. Made with a proprietary, in-house blend of 97 percent composite, the TruFrac composite plug achieves higher run-in speeds, optimizes sealing and anchoring, and reduces the time required for milling. This plug enhances mill-out efficiency when using conventional drilling methods with tricone or junk-mill bits, including coiled-tubing milling.

The TruFrac composite plug is available in in 4 1/2- and 5 1/2-in. casing sizes and in top-ball and internal-ball configurations. The top-ball design provides a large flow area for communication below the plug while using a ball dropped from the surface to seal off communication during fracturing operations. The internal-ball design eliminates the need to pump a ball down and enables communication from below the plug after fracturing operations.

Features

• The plug is rated for use in environments with temperatures up to 300°F (149°C) and pressures up to 10,000 psi (68.9 MPa).
• The upper slip and cone are machined from a single piece of proprietary composite and incorporate powdered metal buttons to provide the necessary anchoring force with the least amount of metal possible.
• The patent-pending lower slip-ring design uses a combination of high-strength composite and small, hardened inserts to provide the required anchoring force. This avoids the breakage, spinning, and mill damage that harder, more brittle materials can inflict, while enabling effortless mill out and reduced cutting size.
• The lower cone is faceted to prevent spinning during mill out.
• The molded element system has a smooth outer diameter (OD), provides a superior seal, and enables run-in speeds of up to 500 ft/min (152 m/min) without the plug presetting. The backup system prevents the element from extruding while holding pressure.
• The beveled mule shoe acts as a clutch to prevent spinning during mill out.
• An optional pump-down ring can be installed to decrease the amount of fluid needed to pump the plug into a horizontal well.

Applications

• Single- and multiple-zone plug-and-perf completions
• Vertical, deviated, or horizontal wellbores
• Underbalanced operations

Benefits

• The plug helps to reduce the time required for plug-and-perf completions with faster run-in speeds and quicker mill-out times. This decreases overall rig time and costs.
• The predominantly composite material breaks up easily during mill out and produces small, lightweight cuttings that can be easily circulated out of the wellbore without plugging equipment.
• The plug is highly durable and can be deployed in diverse environments.